According to market research firm IMSHealth company on October 8 issued a forecast that by 2010, global Drugs Sales growth will likely fall to 4% to 6%, the size of more than 825 billion U.S. dollars; to 2013, market sales will exceed 975 billion U.S. dollars, the annual compound growth rate will be between 4% to 7%.
1 percentage point increase Compared with previous years, the growth rate
the next 5 years the pharmaceutical market growth is still low by historical standards. However, IMS Health Perspectives (HealthcareInsight) of departments, senior vice president of MurrayAitken said: “We see the pharmaceutical area is showing a brighter future, mainly by strong growth in the U.S. market driven, the United States has proved its economic recession stronger than expected resistance. “Therefore, IMS to the global pharmaceutical market in the next 5 years, the growth rate forecast by one percentage point increase.
IMS 220 countries on the global pharmaceutical sales have been followed, obtained Generic Sales increase, the global economic recession and other factors that contribute to global pharmaceutical sales growth slowed in the conclusion.
According to IMS, the 5-year forecast, the U.S.
drug sales growth is expected at around 5%, compared with last year would improve. However, it should be higher than the IMS is only a few months ago forecasts.
Economic downturn is affecting the behavior of patients and health care pay-person strategy. In Russia, Mexico and South Korea and other countries, patients in health care spending in particular, carefully, because in these countries, people have to pay for their own most of the costs of health care. In Japan, Germany and Spain to implement universal health care plan of national economic situation is Medicine The impact of product sales has been relatively small.
IMS predicts U.S. pharmaceutical sales this year, the growth rate of 4.5% to 5.5% next year from 3% to 5%, from 2008 to 2013, annual average growth rate of only 2% to 5%. However, this is still better than last year, the 2008 U.S. pharmaceutical sales growth slow by 1.5%, only one-sixth of the growth rate two years ago. 2013, U.S. pharmaceutical sales will reach 325 000 000 000 ~ 355 billion U.S. dollars, just over one third of total global sales.
“Blockbuster” in which
Global drug sales may be affected by many factors, such as Influenza A H1N1 influenza The extent of popular, the trend of the U.S. health care reform so.
Global pharmaceutical sales is expected to be a major cause of slow growth, in recent years in succession to market generic competition arising from the impact. Some “blockbuster” drugs have lost patent protection, and as board generic pharmacy shelves, these “blockbuster” drug sales plummet. This trend will increase in the next 5 years.
The next five years, will have annual sales reached a record 137 billion U.S. dollars of pharmaceutical products losing patent protection, especially in 2011 and 2012, including Pfizer’s annual sales reach 12 billion U.S. dollars in reduced Cholesterol Drugs Lipitor, from Sanofi-Aventis and Bristol-Myers Squibb Joint sales anticoagulant Plavix, as well as by the GlaxoSmithKline Production of asthma medication Advair.
Although a few years sales have the potential to more than one billion U.S. dollars of the drug may be marketed, used to treat osteoporosis, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, Cancer , Diabetes and thrombosis and other diseases, but they will only replace the part of pharmaceutical companies suffered financial losses.
Aitken said: “a real breakthrough medicines to be able to generate billions of dollars in sales.