Archive for 'Case Studies'
Iowa Electronic Markets and TradeSports
We can obtain an approximate sense of the accuracy of probability estimate prediction markets by eyeballing them. Let us consider the most venerable collection of prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Markets, created by professors at the business school at the University of Iowa. Although the IEM features a range of prediction markets, the most famous […]
The Policy Analysis Market
This chapter has imagined that policy analysis organizations might subsidize prediction markets concerning issues relevant to public policy. Private sponsorship is more likely than government sponsorship, because the sole governmental foray into prediction markets ended in a public relations disaster. The plan, called the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), was to use prediction markets to aggregate […]
The Foresight Exchange
An alternative means of complying with legal restrictions on prediction markets is to sponsor a play-money market. As discussed in Chapter 1, some such markets, such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange, have shown remarkable predictive capacity. The HSE does not provide any cash subsidy, although market participants can cash in some of their play money […]
The Yahoo! Tech Buzz Market
Pennock is an employee of Yahoo! Laboratories, and so it should not be surprising that Yahoo! has implemented his idea in an experimental play-money market, called the Buzz Game,25 which is designed to help predict technology trends. The key […]
Orange Juice and the Weather
The possibility that the predictive power of securities markets might provide information to businesses is in some sense nothing new. Commodity markets have long made it possible for small businesses to purchase commodities for delivery in the future and for speculators to trade these commodities in the hope of making a profit, thus providing market […]
Market-Based Product Evaluation
Some preliminary experimental data indicate that self-resolving prediction markets in fact will produce meaningful results. A group of computer scientists and business school professors created a prediction market using a conventional double auction design.12 Each participant in the experiment was given access to on-line information about a number of products; bicycle pumps were used in […]