The Media
If democratic institutions are tools for translating public opinion into public policy, then the most important institution might be the one that contributes most to forming public opinion in the first place: the media.1 Constitutional protections for free speech and a free press such as the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution seem to reflect a view that allowing uncensored speech will promote truth and, indirectly, good governance.2 Perhaps the most articulate expression of this view is Oliver Wendell Holmes’s famous statement “The best test of truth is the power of the thought to get itself accepted in the competition of the market.”3 The metaphor of the marketplace draws its appeal from the premise that competition in the economic sphere generally works, with superior products emerging from the choices of consumers. Yet even those who accept the general claims of such market enthusiasts as Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek recognize the existence of market failures. Markets for ideas can fail, too, and the result can be broader failures in democratic governance. Why might markets for ideas fail? A simple answer is that many members of the public will generally be ignorant about particular issues and underlying theoretical frameworks, often rationally so.4 Acquisition of information requires time and money. Just as economic markets can lead to suboptimal results as because of imperfect information,5 so, too, can limited background knowledge make accurate evaluation of new claims about the world extraordinarily difficult. So it is not surprising that surveys indicate that the public’s views about issues often differ from the views of those who might be considered experts. For example, survey evidence suggests that economists generally believe that trade agreements between the The media, of course, cannot be expected to fix all cognitive errors among the public. When the media accurately report information, the public may pay little attention. For example, although the media presumably accurately report the identities of congressional candidates, in many elections the vast majority of voters cannot name a single congressional candidate in their district,8 let alone give information about voting patterns. And if the media could succeed in informing the public with facts of this type, they cannot hope to replace the educational system in providing background knowledge and skills necessary for making relatively informed voting decisions. All is not lost, and some political scientists argue that voters still are able to make rational decisions.9 Nonetheless, it should not be too idealistic to hope that the media, though constrained by the need to entertain, would generally seek to improve the knowledge of the viewing and reading public. The media, however, may be hesitant to provide information about the consensus views of experts concerning particular issues because there may be controversy about what the consensus is. Ironically, a desire to promote objectivity sometimes may interfere with attempts to provide accurate information. When an issue is contested, a media outlet perhaps can best achieve the goal of objectivity by presenting both sides of the issue. The public, however, often cannot identify which argument is more true and compelling. Suppose, for example, that a news program about crime features one expert who contends that crime rates in a particular city will soon rise and another who contends that crime rates will soon fall. Even a criminologist or a statistician might need to spend hours evaluating the literature to assess the relative strength of the competing arguments. The public might benefit from a statement by the news program that three-quarters of the experts contacted subscribed to one view. Understandably, however, journalists are reluctant to report the results of such unscientific polls, yet lack the resources to conduct more sophisticated polls of experts, assuming that they could find an objective definition of who should count as an expert. With regard to some issues, “just the facts” may be all the public needs, but in many cases an important fact may be what the consensus opinion about the issue is or whether such a consensus exists. This chapter suggests that prediction markets can provide objective gauges of expert consensus for the media to pass along to the public. My claim is not that prediction markets provide the best possible predictions, overcoming all irrationality. Indeed, individual experts sometimes might be able to beat markets. But experience suggests that prediction markets are generally fairly accurate, and at least they provide incentives for those who could beat the market to push predictions in a sensible direction. I begin by describing a relatively simple structure for a prediction market that can be used to estimate the probability that a particular event will occur. After recounting the experiences of perhaps the most famous prediction market, the nonprofit Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), I describe a more general type of numeric prediction market that the IEM also uses. Although it has focused primarily on predicting the outcomes of elections, prediction markets conceivably can be used to predict virtually any outcome, and the for-profit Web site Tradesports.com has used them to predict the results of athletic contests and a range of other events. A prediction market is not the only possible prediction technology–pari-mutuel wagering has long been shown to produce predictions about horse racing–but this chapter argues that prediction markets offer considerable advantages. They also present unique challenges, and I assess the danger that they might be manipulated. Finally, I suggest how the media might use prediction markets to provide better information to readers and viewers.
3 Responses to “The Media”
Leave a Reply
April 21st, 2010 at 7:19 am
????? ????????, ??? ? ??? ????????, ?? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?????? ??????????….
???????? ?? ?????????? 1 Constitutional protections for free speech and a free press such as the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution seem to reflect […….
July 20th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
< blockquote >< a href=”http://medicamentspot.com/”>Medicamentspot.com. Canadian Health&Care.Special Internet Prices.No prescription online pharmacy.Best quality drugs. No prescription pills. Buy pills online< /a >…
Buy:Buspar.Amoxicillin.Prozac.Ventolin.SleepWell.Lipothin.Lasix.Acomplia.Nymphomax.Seroquel.Advair.Cozaar.Zocor.Aricept.Zetia.Lipitor.Benicar.Female Pink Viagra.Wellbutrin SR.Female Cialis….
August 30th, 2010 at 6:50 pm
louis http://osilvermxltkxw.AACEHARDWARE.INFO/tag/louis+vuitton+Gucci+Purse/ : louis…
Purse…